How to Use Value Betting Strategy in Exchange Betting

Exchange betting is very useful for applying a number of betting strategies. Here you can learn the basics about value betting, how to find the best betting opportunities and make smarter betting decisions for long-term success.

What is Value Betting?

Value betting is a strategy where bettors find a bet where they think the odds of the event to happen are higher than what the odds suggest.

How Value Betting Works?

In order to apply this strategy, bettors need to find and exploit differences between the true probability of an event to happen and the probability that is suggested by the odds. In order to do so, they need to find the probability implied in the odds, estimate their true probability and find the value of the bet.

How to Calculate the Implied Probability

In order to calculate the probability suggested in the odds, bettors need to convert the odds into a percentage. The odds format usually used in betting exchanges is decimal. The formula for finding the implied probability in decimal odds is

Implied Probability = 1/Odds x 100

In an event where the suggested odds are 2.50, the implied probability is

Implied Probability = 1/Odds x 100 = 1 / 2.50 x 100 = 40%.

How to Estimate the True Probability

In order to be able to know what is the actual likelihood of an event to happen, bettors need to know about the sports events and markets, they need to do frequent research and use statistical models.

How to Identify Value

In order to find value on a bet, the implied probability needs to be lower than the true probability. In the example of the 40% implied probability of an event to happen at the odds of 2.50, if the true probability is 50%, meaning that the bettor believes that the odds should be 2.00), the bet is a value bet.

How to Apply Value Betting in Exchange Betting

Do your Research

Value betting is an advanced strategy that demands knowledge. Bettors need to gather information about the sports and the markets they are interested in. They need to consult statistics, historical information and alaysis by experts in order to be able to estimate the true probability of various outcomes.

Place a Back Bet

When bettors find a bet where the true probability is higher than the implied probability, it is time to place a back bet. This means that they are betting for this specific outcome to happen. IF they believe that a team has a 50% chance of winning and the market offers odds of 2.50 (implied odds = 40%), then they can place a back bet on that team.

Manage your Bankroll

Value betting is a strategy usually applied by regular and experienced bettors who are into long-term betting. It is very important to manage your bankroll wisely. In order to do so, bettors need to make a staking plan with the optimal amount to bet on each value bet and stick to it no matter what, without chasing losses by placing higher stakes.

Monitor the Markets

Bettors need to keep an eye on various betting exchange platforms in order to be able to spot differences between their estimated true probability and the market odds.

Place a Lay Bet

When bettors find a bet where the market overestimates the probability of an event to happen, they can place a lay bet. This means that they are betting against this specific outcome. If the market gives a team 66.7% chance of winning at odds of 1.50 and the bettor believes the true chance of that team winning is 55%, they can lay that team.

Track your Bets

Bettors need to keep detailed record of their bets. They need to review frequently their estimated probabilities and the odds at which they have placed their bets. They need to track their performance in order to get better at their estimations and improve their strategy.

In Conclusion

Value betting is a strategy that can generate long-term profits. Betting exchanges are fruitful environments for applying this strategy, because the odds chance quickly and they are not fixed, but determined by the players. Staying informed, using tools and having patience are key points to make more informed decisions. Using value betting in betting exchanges, bettors can apply their knowledge and ensure profitable bets.