Cash in on Draws with Lay the Draw
The “Lay the Draw” Strategy
“Lay the Draw” is a betting strategy that has gained popularity on betting exchanges. Let’s see how you can benefit from it, explaining its fundamentals, pros and potential pitfalls.
The Lay the Draw strategy is used on all events that can result in draw. It is most commonly used in soccer (football) betting where the goal is to profit from a drawn match or a game with no goals. Unlike traditional sports betting which involves backing a specific outcome, the Lay the Draw strategy involves laying (betting against) the draw result.
How it works
1. Choose a soccer match with two evenly matched teams.
2. Wait for the odds on the draw to drop (typically in the first 10-15 minutes of the game). This reflects the market’s perception that a goal is more likely to be scored as the game progresses, which creates better opportunities for Lay the Draw bettors to secure a lay bet at lower odds, potentially increasing their profit if the game does not end in a draw. On the other hand, some bettors may choose to lay the draw at higher odds, especially if they believe there is a good chance of a goal being scored early in the game. Betting at higher odds carries higher risk, but can result in a higher reward. The decision depends on your individual analysis of the game, your risk tolerance and your desired potential profit.
3. Place a lay bet against the draw outcome on a betting exchange.
4. If the game ends in a draw, you lose your lay bet and suffer a loss. In the occasion of any other outcome, you win your lay bet and make a profit.
Advantages of the Lay the Draw Strategy
The primary advantage of the Lay the Draw strategy is that you profit when the game does not end in a draw. This means that if one of the teams wins the match, you win your lay bet and make a profit. This is particularly beneficial when you believe a goal is likely to be scored and the game will not end in a draw.
In addition, this strategy offers a favorable Risk-Reward Ratio. You can control your losses by managing your lay bet effectively, and if the game does not end in a draw, your potential profit can be very significant. It allows you to minimize your losses if the game is drawn early and capitalize on higher odds if you believe a goad is imminent.
In-play betting on betting exchanges is a very fruitful environment for the Lay the Draw strategy, because it allows you to adjust it as the game takes place. You can choose to exit your position or hedge your bets if circumstances change during the match.
The Lay the Draw strategy can generate a consistent stream of small profits when it is performed correctly. Why is that? This is because you do not rely on predicting the final outcome of the game, which is very suitable for you if you prefer a more systematic approach to sports betting.
Betting exchanges offer a wide range of soccer matches, which gives you the opportunity to carefully choose markets that align with the Lay the Draw strategy. It will be of your advantage to look for games featuring evenly matched teams with a history of few draws to maximize your opportunities.
If you combine this strategy with a good bankroll management, you can manage better the risk factors.
Avoid the Pitfalls
While the Lay the Draw strategy is about profiting when the game does not end in a draw, there is always the risk of the match ending in a draw. In such cases, it is avoidable that you will suffer losses. You can always mitigate them by using the cash out option wisely.
All betting exchanges charge a commission fee on all winning bets. This fee can reduce your overall profits, therefore it is important to factor the commission rate when calculating your potential gains and losses.
Liquidity on betting exchanges can vary from one match to another. Less popular matches may have lower liquidity, making it challenging to place large bets or exit positions quickly. It is advisable to select liquid markets in order to make the most of the Lay the Draw strategy.
The timing of your lay bet is critical. Waiting too long to place your lay bet can result in unfavorable odds, which can reduce your potential profit or increase your risk. On the other hand, placing too early may expose you to a higher risk of the game ending in a draw.
This strategy is not suitable for emotion driven bettors. Emotional decisions can lead to losses, therefore it is important to stick to your plan and avoid impulsive actions, especially when things do not go as expected.
Remember that soccer matches can be unpredictable, with unexpected events, red cards, injuries impacting the outcome. These variables can affect the success of the strategy and you need to be prepared to make quick adjustments.
Lay the Draw example
Here is an example of the Lay the Draw strategy using decimal odds.
We will assume that you bet on a hypothetical betting exchange (Exchange X) which charges you with 5% commission fee on your winning bets and you want to apply the Lay the Draw strategy on the Arsenal vs Chelsea match at a $100 stake.
Pre-match Odds
Laying the Draw: 3.50
Outcome A:
No Draw (Arsenal or Chelsea wins)
Net Profit = ($100 – ($100 x 3.50)) – (5% of ($100 – ($100 x 3.50)))
Net Profit = ($100 – $350) – (5% of ($100 – $350))
Net Profit = (-$250) – (5% of (-$250))
Net Profit = (-$250) – (-$12.50)
Net Profit = $237.50
So, if the match does not end in a draw, you win your lay bet and your net proft would be $237.50
Outcome B:
Draw
In this case, you lose your lay bet and, as if you were the bookmaker, you need to pay out the other bettor their winnings calculating your liability.
Potential Liability = Stake x (Odds – 1)
Potential Liability = $100 x (3.50 – 1)
Potential Liability = $100 x 2.50
Potential Liability = $250
This means that your lay bet is unsuccessful and you need to pay out $250 to the backer who took the other side of your bet.
In a Nutshell
The Lay the Draw strategy on betting exchanges is a favorite for a lot of bettors. It involves choosing matches, being cautious with risks, and staying disciplined. Although very potentially profitable it is still risky. Therefore you need to calculate the risks carefully, sticking to your bankroll management plan and only bet what you can comfortably lose.