What Is Margin Betting and How to Use It
Margin betting is a popular form of sports betting where the bettor tries to predict not just the winner of a game but how much the team will win by.
This type of betting is common in high-scoring sports like rugby and basketball.
Learning how it works can help bettors make better bets and find better value.
What Is Margin Betting?
Margin betting is betting on both the winning team and the margin of victory. For the bet to win, both parts must be correct. The team must win, and the win must be by the number of points or within a points range chosen in the bet.
Bookmakers offer several margin options for a match. For example:
One team to win by 1-10 points
This team to win by 11-20 points
The other team to win by 1-39 points
That team to win by 40+ points
This kind of betting is useful for games where there is a clear favorite but bettors think the match will be close or a blowout.
Example of a Margin Bet
Let’s say there is an AFL match between Team A and Team B. A bookmaker might offer margin betting option like these:
Team A to win by 1-39 points: 1.90
Team A to win by 40+ points: 3.50
Team B to win by 1-39 points: 5.00
Team B to win by 40+ points: 10.00
A bettor chooses Team A to win by 1-39 points. Team A wins 85-60. The point margin is 25, therefore the bet wins. If Team A won 105-60, the point margin is 45, higher than the 39 point margin maximum of the bet, therefore, even though Team A won, the bet loses. Predicting both the winner and the winning range makes margin betting risky but interesting.
What Is 0% Margin in Betting?
Many bettors, especially beginners, often confuse margin betting with bookmaker margin. In contrast to margin betting, the bookmaker margin is the extra percentage added to odds in order to ensure a profit regardless of the outcome of the event. A 0% margin means the bookmaker is offering odds with no added profit built in, which means the bookmaker offers true odds.
For example, if a betting exchange or bookmaker offer odds on both sides of a match that add up to exactly 100% in probability terms, it is a 0% margin market. This is very rare and often only offered during promotions or on betting exchanges.
What Does a 20% Margin Mean?
Again referring to bookmaker margins and not margin betting, a 20% margin is very high and means the bookmaker has added a large cushion to ensure profit. In betting markets, this makes it harder for players to win in the long term. It also means the odds being offered are far lower than the true chances of the event.
If bettors compare odds across multiple bookmakers and betting exchanges and see one with a 20% margin, it is usually best to avoid that market and search for a more promising one, unless there is a special reason to do so.
What Is a Margin Betting Calculator?
A margin betting calculator can be two things:
- Game Margin Calculator
This tool helps calculate possible outcomes based on point spreads or final scores. - Bookmaker Margin Calculator
This tool shows how much profit is built into odds and it converts them to implied probabilities.
A calculator is a very useful toll because it helps assess risk and reward based on likely score lines or points spreads.
How to Calculate Margins
For calculating the bookmaker margins, meaning the added profit that is built in the odds, there is a simple formula:
- Convert each set of odds to implied probability. The odds should be in decimal format.
Implied probability = 1/odds
- Add all the probabilities.
- Subtract 100% to find the margin.
For example:
Team A odds: 1.80
Team B odds: 2.10
Team A implied probability = 55.56%
Team B implied probability = 47.62%
Total implied probability = 103.18%
Margin = 3.18%
This does not apply to margin betting as a betting type, but it is very useful for bettors to know and compare the overall betting value.
Tips for Using Margin Betting
In order to be more successful in margin betting, bettors should know the teams of the sport they have chosen to bet on. Teams with strong defense usually win by small margins, while attacking teams can score big blowouts.
It is also good to use stats. Past scores, average winning margins, and home and away team form can help predict outcomes better. Bettors can always shop around. Different bookmakers offer different ranges and odds for the same match.
In Short
Margin betting is a strategic way to bet on sports. Instead of just picking who will win, bettors try to guess how much they will win by. This adds a layer of challenge and potential reward. Very often it is confused with bookmaker margins. Understanding bookmaker margins and how the affect odds, can help bettors avoid poor value bets in margin betting.